by Bruce Heath
I am currently serving as the Hinsdale County Representative on the Gunnison River Basin Round table.
Mother Nature and human nature have combined to produce a historic low water availability crisis for the seven states in the Colorado River Basin.
For the past 25 years, the southwest has been in the longest drought in the past 1,200 years. Moisture in mountain snow pack that then melts into river water is the very life blood of our region.
This winter, depending on location, portions of Colorado have produced readings that are nearing — with potential to surpass by April 1 — the two lowest years since recording began 75 years ago.
This winter’s low snow has created an immediate water emergency.
Since 1922, users in the Colorado River system have followed laws about how water is apportioned to seven states in the upper and lower basins.
Annually, flows in the river vary considerably due to the wide variance in winter snow totals. In the face of these variances, a vast array of reservoirs were built to provide a reliable water source for the lower basin states. The two largest reservoirs are Lake Powell and Lake Mead with Powell having become the “key” to making the agreement work.
Although the 1922 agreement was based on deeply flawed data and future water availability assumptions, the “laws of the river” for water distribution proved adequate until 2006.
The mega drought began in 2000. Having no way to know the magnitude of the ensuing drought, the lower basin states kept taking their legal water right from Powell. All involved believed future “wet” snow years would restore the capacity.
In 2007, the seven states — having seen Lake Powell go from nearly full in 2000 to 50 percent of capacity in 2006 — agreed to a set of restricted release and usage guidelines to be followed in critically dry years. With several modifications, these have been in place for 18 years.
Originally, it was thought that the two sets of tiered dam outlets allowed for up to 90 percent of the reservoir capacity to be released downstream. However, in 2023, a design flaw in the Glen Canyon Dam became known, making it a critical impediment to downstream users having access to the reservoirs’ stored water.
If the water elevation drops below the upper inlets, the four lowest river outlets near the bottom of the dam have proven to not be functional. The Director of the Bureau’s Technical Service Center who has advised against using the outlet works as the sole means for releasing water from the dam. A previous high-capacity use of them for only 72 hours in 2023 caused structural damage, which required nine months to repair.
Despite the remedial effort, the Bureau concluded the repairs will not prevent future damage. So for now, close to 4-million acre feet of water is “trapped” in Powell.
The elevation of the reservoir has to remain above the upper inlets built into the dam that allow water to pass through to the turbines that generate electricity and then be sent down stream to lower basin users. In the years when the previous low snow readings were set, Powell was near 100 percent capacity and water levels were well above the upper inlets.
This allowed water to be released downstream to meet the legal right of the lower basin. Today, Powell is currently at 24 percent of capacity and approaching that critical water level where Glen Canyon dam would experience operational failure because water level would be below the upper inlets.
Knowingly facing an October 1, 2026 expiration of the operating guidelines, the seven states have met multiple times over the past two years to negotiate new release operating rules for critical dry years. All the sessions failed to reach agreement.
Having missed the final deadline of February 14, 2026, the Bureau of Reclamation [BRC] has announced they will suggest the new operating rules, dictating who gets what amount of water during severe drought years.
So far the alternatives suggested by the BRC have been soundly rejected by all seven states.
With much of Colorado experiencing record high temperatures, the meager snow pack is melting early. This spring, river runoff flows into Powell are expected to be 25 percent of the past 30 year average. That would be nearing the lowest low flow that has occurred in the last 60 years.
The situation has become so dire that a near term stopgap decision is being forced to avoid Glen Canyon dam operational failure. This operational failure, in turn, would prevent water flowing into the lower basin states via Lake Mead.
Until system-wide hydrology conditions have shown meaningful improvement, several decisions must be made.
There are 34 tracked reservoirs upstream from Powell. As a system, they are capable, based on current capacity, of contributing at least one emergency water release to Powell this year.
This on its own will not be enough to keep the water level high enough to maintain the dam’s functionality. Releases out of Powell will also need to be curtailed to keep water elevation above the upper inlets. Then, voluntary lower basin cuts in their water use will likely also be required by at least one million acre feet.
Depending on the actual amount of spring runoff, the upper basin may also have to cut consumption to insure inflows to Powell contribute to maintaining the needed elevation at the dam.
The impending life style changes and negative economic implications from less water available to use by all involved parties are enormous.
What users are involved: Seven states. 5.5-million acres of agriculture land that produces $5-billion in revenue and 90 percent of the green leaf vegetables we consume in the winter use Colorado river irrigation water.
Forty-million people use river water in some way daily. Five-million people depend on dam hydro electricity, 30 Native American tribes and Mexico are river water users.
Both Phoenix and Denver get 40 percent of their water from the Colorado River. The river supplies water to almost all the cities in the greater Los Angeles, San Bernadino and San Diego areas.
Agricultural junior water rights in all 20 Colorado western slope counties will be facing potential water calls.
If common ground on how to deal with less water is not found quickly, this will remind me of a story Lake City pioneers used to tell.
The story was told about the outcome when people were facing a vexing problem where the parties could not agree on a solution. “Did you hear about the man who died from exhaustion while trying to make up his bed? Goodness..how did that happen? Well..he never could find the longest side of his square blanket.”
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