Day: July 24, 2026

With frequent reference to the arrival of “monsoon season” and better than average chance of afternoon rainfall in coming days, fire fears from the Elk Wildfire — static in recent days at 2,307.5 acres burned — are lessening.Mandatory evacuation zones on the Lake Fork at the northern boundary of the county have likewise lessened with announcement by Hinsdale County Emergency Manager Phil Graham and Hinsdale County Sheriff’s Office on Tuesday this week.Only a single zone, expansive HNS-E002 to the west of the Lake Fork River, encompassing the location of the fire within U.S. Forest Service Uncompahgre Wilderness surrounding Crystal Lake and Crystal Peak, with minimal private landholdings, remains in the mandatory evacuation mode.Another lower Lake Fork zone, HNS-E005 — a slim wedge of land to the west of the Lake Fork at the county boundary — was in yellow “Get Set” status last week but now has transitioned to the calmer green “Get Ready” category for preparedness in the event evacuation is required.Through efforts of Graham and his team, Hinsdale County Sheriff Starnes, following rain drizzle throughout the night, on Thursday morning this week announced evacuation preparedness advisories have now been dropped on all other Lake Fork Valley zones, including Hinsdale Zone 004 to the immediate northeast of Lake City with San Juan Ranch and San Juan Ranch Estates, HNS-E014, Town of Lake City west of the Lake Fork, HNS-016, Town of Lake City (Ball Flats, Lake City Heights) east of the Lake Fork, and HNS-013, Wade’s Addition.Despite the relaxed orders, Sheriff Starnes continues to urge county residents to remain alert to fire status.In addition to recent near-daily rainfall and increasing humidity, cautiously optimistic news shared at Monday’s information session is the fact the fire is not pushing toward Lake City but based on prevailing wind currents is instead angling to the northwest and east in direction of Highway 149.The zone to the immediate north of the Hinsdale County boundary, GNN-220, in Gunnison County — both sides of the Lake Fork and including Norsworthy property at Ute Trail Ranch — was in mandatory evacuation last week but has now been lessened to green “Ready” status.Static at 2,307 acres due to higher humidity and near-daily day and nighttime rain showers, the Elk Fire is described at present as “creeping and smoldering” and zero percent contained. The smoldering fire is sustained by brush and large downed trees, fire behavior analyst Sarah Bush telling a packed, school gymnasium crowd on Monday evening this week that the duration of the smoldering wood is based on the time — from one hour for smaller combustibles such as grass, brush and small twigs, up to 1,000 hours for larger standing and felled dead logs 3” to 8”-diameter — it takes for moisture to saturate wood and deter burning.The time required for moisture saturation for small diameter fuels such as grass, leaves and needles smaller than a pencil eraser is one hour, while ten hours’ moisture saturation is required to eliminate burn danger in larger sticks and branches ranging in diameter from dime to quarter in size, and 100 hours continuation moisture saturation in order to favorably impact larger branches with diameter golf ball to baseball in size; Bush said it requires upwards of 1,000 hours’ saturation to defer burning in large-size standing and on-the-ground dead timber 3-8”Out-of-town firefighters are divided into three units — Alpha, Charlie, and X-Ray — monitoring and providing advance fire mitigation in the wake of the Elk Wildfire north of town. Team Charlie members, above are pictured at the end of Elk Road, San Juan Hills Subdivision, on Tuesday morning. In terms of fire mitigation, team members “have cleared a lot of brush around a lot of homes” on the west side of Highway 149 and, in precautionary mode, wrapped endangered residences and outbuildings in protective foil and installed water tanks and hose systems in the event the wildfire regenerates.diameter.“It takes a long time to gain moisture,” she said and, conversely, “it takes a long time to lose moisture.”The relationship between humidity and the length of time wood burns is exacerbated in drought situations which exist at present based on less than normal rainfall combined with low snowpack last winter, rainfall in June in Lake City, according to Bush, just 50 percent of normal with the result of dry forest logs and brush fuels.Bush also briefly spoke on ERC — Energy Release Component — and the predicted end of traditional fire season. Based on moisture, there is a 50 percent chance ERC will reach the 90th percentile or lower and fire season will end by September 4. Noting the Lake Fork Valley is entering the traditional monsoon season, Bush said “we’re moving in the right direction” in terms of humidity.Conversely, and if rain stops and temperatures increase, “there is a 20 percent chance for the fire to escalate.” During the past 20 years, there have been four instances — 2007, 2019, 2020, and 2024 — when ECR escalated and fire danger increased late in the summer and into fall.Fire experts at Monday’s second largely-attended information meeting at Lake City Community School — 150 people attendance seated on chairs and bleachers and another 350 who attended the session virtually online for the start of what was described as a “robust” update — explained that rather than battling the Elk blaze on the ground, the fire fighting strategy, according to Operations Chief Chad Rowland, is “indirect containment” due to the ruggedness and extreme verticality of the terrain, together with extreme danger to firefighters from falling dead timber.Rowland recounted that initially after start of the Elk blaze on July 9, firefighters were placed on the ground as the wind-borne wildfire expanded. “And that strategy,” he said, “proved too risky in gauging firefighter safety.”“We had to rethink the situation and go back to indirect strategy.”Like Fire Behavior Analyst Bush, Rowland placed his hope that the developing monsoon season will reduce the likelihood of fire spread as rain penetrates the ground below the forest canopy.Since the