Welcome Rain Dampens Fire Fight Concerns

With frequent reference to the arrival of “monsoon season” and better than average chance of afternoon rainfall in coming days, fire fears from the Elk Wildfire — static in recent days at 2,307.5 acres burned — are lessening.
Mandatory evacuation zones on the Lake Fork at the northern boundary of the county have likewise lessened with announcement by Hinsdale County Emergency Manager Phil Graham and Hinsdale County Sheriff’s Office on Tuesday this week.
Only a single zone, expansive HNS-E002 to the west of the Lake Fork River, encompassing the location of the fire within U.S. Forest Service Uncompahgre Wilderness surrounding Crystal Lake and Crystal Peak, with minimal private landholdings, remains in the mandatory evacuation mode.
Another lower Lake Fork zone, HNS-E005 — a slim wedge of land to the west of the Lake Fork at the county boundary — was in yellow “Get Set” status last week but now has transitioned to the calmer green “Get Ready” category for preparedness in the event evacuation is required.
Through efforts of Graham and his team, Hinsdale County Sheriff Starnes, following rain drizzle throughout the night, on Thursday morning this week announced evacuation preparedness advisories have now been dropped on all other Lake Fork Valley zones, including Hinsdale Zone 004 to the immediate northeast of Lake City with San Juan Ranch and San Juan Ranch Estates, HNS-E014, Town of Lake City west of the Lake Fork, HNS-016, Town of Lake City (Ball Flats, Lake City Heights) east of the Lake Fork, and HNS-013, Wade’s Addition.
Despite the relaxed orders, Sheriff Starnes continues to urge county residents to remain alert to fire status.
In addition to recent near-daily

rainfall and increasing humidity, cautiously optimistic news shared at Monday’s information session is the fact the fire is not pushing toward Lake City but based on prevailing wind currents is instead angling to the northwest and east in direction of Highway 149.
The zone to the immediate north of the Hinsdale County boundary, GNN-220, in Gunnison County — both sides of the Lake Fork and including Norsworthy property at Ute Trail Ranch — was in mandatory evacuation last week but has now been lessened to green “Ready” status.
Static at 2,307 acres due to higher humidity and near-daily day and nighttime rain showers, the Elk Fire is described at present as “creeping and smoldering” and zero percent contained. The smoldering fire is sustained by brush and large downed trees, fire behavior analyst Sarah Bush telling a packed, school gymnasium crowd on Monday evening this week that the duration of the smoldering wood is based on the time — from one hour for smaller combustibles such as grass, brush and small twigs, up to 1,000 hours for larger standing and felled dead logs 3” to 8”-diameter — it takes for moisture to saturate wood and deter burning.
The time required for moisture saturation for small diameter fuels such as grass, leaves and needles smaller than a pencil eraser is one hour, while ten hours’ moisture saturation is required to eliminate burn danger in larger sticks and branches ranging in diameter from dime to quarter in size, and 100 hours continuation moisture saturation in order to favorably impact larger branches with diameter golf ball to baseball in size; Bush said it requires upwards of 1,000 hours’ saturation to defer burning in large-size standing and on-the-ground dead timber 3-8”
Out-of-town firefighters are divided into three units — Alpha, Charlie, and X-Ray — monitoring and providing advance fire mitigation in the wake of the Elk Wildfire north of town. Team Charlie members, above are pictured at the end of Elk Road, San Juan Hills Subdivision, on Tuesday morning. In terms of fire mitigation, team members “have cleared a lot of brush around a lot of homes” on the west side of Highway 149 and, in precautionary mode, wrapped endangered residences and outbuildings in protective foil and installed water tanks and hose systems in the event the wildfire regenerates.diameter.
“It takes a long time to gain moisture,” she said and, conversely, “it takes a long time to lose moisture.”
The relationship between humidity and the length of time wood burns is exacerbated in drought situations which exist at present based on less than normal rainfall combined with low snowpack last winter, rainfall in June in Lake City, according to Bush, just 50 percent of normal with the result of dry forest logs and brush fuels.
Bush also briefly spoke on ERC — Energy Release Component — and the predicted end of traditional fire season. Based on moisture, there is a 50 percent chance ERC will reach the 90th percentile or lower and fire season will end by September 4. Noting the Lake Fork Valley is entering the traditional monsoon season, Bush said “we’re moving in the right direction” in terms of humidity.
Conversely, and if rain stops and temperatures increase, “there is a 20 percent chance for the fire to escalate.” During the past 20 years, there have been four instances — 2007, 2019, 2020, and 2024 — when ECR escalated and fire danger increased late in the summer and into fall.
Fire experts at Monday’s second largely-attended information meeting at Lake City Community School — 150 people attendance seated on chairs and bleachers and another 350 who attended the session virtually online for the start of what was described as a “robust” update — explained that rather than battling the Elk blaze on the ground, the fire fighting strategy, according to Operations Chief Chad

Rowland, is “indirect containment” due to the ruggedness and extreme verticality of the terrain, together with extreme danger to firefighters from falling dead timber.
Rowland recounted that initially after start of the Elk blaze on July 9, firefighters were placed on the ground as the wind-borne wildfire expanded. “And that strategy,” he said, “proved too risky in gauging firefighter safety.”
“We had to rethink the situation and go back to indirect strategy.”
Like Fire Behavior Analyst Bush, Rowland placed his hope that the developing monsoon season will reduce the likelihood of fire spread as rain penetrates the ground below the forest canopy.
Since the wildfire’s lightning strike started earlier this month, the Elk Fire has been overseen by Wyoming Type III Incident Management Team which transitioned to the more extensive 402-personnel Northwest Pacific Complex Incident Management Team 8 on July 16.
A further transition and either extension of NW Complex Management Team oversight or transfer to yet another management team takes place late this week. Fire fighting personnel continue to patrol Highway 149 along the Lake Fork from the county to Lake City, monitoring and mitigating fire danger on ancillary roads such as lower CR 20 on Henson Creek and Nellie Creek.
In its present configuration, firefighting personnel in the NW Complex Management Team 8 are separated into three separate units: Alpha which is manning the fire’s containment line

to the north, Charlie charged with maintaining secondary lines to the northeast, and X-Ray which is concentrating on fire mitigation along Henson Creek CR 20 to the southwest and developing a fire break along the Nellie Creek Road.
Fire mitigation concentrating on the west side of Highway 149 leading into Lake City consists of firefighters repeatedly knocking on doors seeking landowner permission to remove ladder fuels on properties surrounding homes and in some instances literally wrapping structures in fire resistant foil. Literally at the front door, the typical response is enthusiastic approval, although in a few instances landowners have stated they are already comfortable and feel in control of the situation.
According to Rowland, “we’ve done a ton of structural protection’’ via initial personal contact and, with landowner permission, fire mitigation with tree trimming and brush removal which has occurred at “every single house” on the west side of Highway 149 between the county line and Lake City, including some houses in Lake City.
In some instances with perceived vulnerability, houses have been wrapped in protective foil and sprinkler systems with water reservoir tanks installed.
Aircraft have sparingly dropped pink-hued fire retardent at select high elevation locations which are considered vulnerable to fire and, in the unlikely event the fire rekindles and threatens the Highway 149 corridor, Rowland said he envisions powder retardent would be heavily sprayed along the highway.
“If the fire wakes up at some point, we want to give our local fire managers the absolute best opportunity to protect these homes, keep the fire in the perimeter, and protect the community.”
At Monday evening’s fire meeting in the school gymnasium, Northwest Complex Management Team Incident Commender Adam Veale cited two clear objectives, the first of which was to minimize the extent of acreage burned while protecting firefighters and providing public safety, and, secondly, minimalize impact of the fire to the community, “which,” he said, “we did.”
Veale referenced efforts at the wildfire’s start by Wyoming Type III Incident Management Team, saying “we were set up for success” prior to transfer to NW Complex Management Team on July 16. Since transfer, he said on Monday, only 175 additional acres have burned. “And I can’t take credit for that,” Veale said to audience applause, citing efforts by the Wyoming Team early in the month and, now, increasingly rainy weather.
In his opening remarks to Monday’s appreciative crowd, Veale began by stating this was his first time in Lake City and — again to applause — characterizing “this is a million-dollar community you have, I understand why you’re all here.”

_{Calmly reassuring at Lake City’s public information session earlier this week, top descending, were Incident Commander Adam Veale, Fire Behavior Analyst Sarah Bush, Hinsdale Emergency Management Director Phil Graham and, above, Paonia, Colorado, U.S. Forest Agency Administrator Andy Kelher}

Veale said, I understand the pressure you are under right now and how the fire impacts you directly and indirectly.”
U.S. Forest Service Agency Administrator Andy Kelher, from Paonia, said the hoped-for El Nino “is not the sole answer.” Long-term, Kelher says he envisions the fuels mitigation process now underway, combined with firelines for the Elk Fire which will be maintained into the distant future, will aid in future fire fighting efforts.
Fire fighting strategists have mapped out a postage stamp-size fire containment area on public lands north of Lake City which extends at the north parameter along the Alpine Plateau Road in Gunnison County, Highway 149 to the east between the county line and Town of Lake City which is termed the “backbone” of the box, and County Road 20 along Henson Creek to Nellie Creek comprising the southern boundary which is largely fire-resistent due to its rock cliff topography.
The boundary line of the diagonal to the east is described as Nellie Creek to trailhead and extending along the Ridge Stock Driveway back to the Alpine Plateau Road.
The goal is to “build a box” within which the fire is contained “and let it burn out.” The perimeter of the box utilizes existing road systems and natural geological features such as ridge lines.
In order to maximize the fire’s distance from populated Lake City, the lower right hand corner of the box immediately adject to Lake City has been lopped off with a “cap’’ fireline which is being pieced together utilizing existing firebreak roads and trails paralleling Highway 149 starting at Larson Creek roughly following the Larson Lakes Trail to end above Pete’s Lake on Lake City’s north end.
Also speaking on Monday’s information meeting was Hinsdale Emergency Manager Phil Graham who credited fire pre-planning success on cooperative work by a myriad of local agencies — Hinsdale County Sheriff, EMS, medical center, elected officials, and internal administration, etc. — in fortunate combination with availability of the new Operations Center facilities in the county’s new Henson Street facility.
“A heck of a lot of work has been accomplished” by the multi-agency team,” the EM Manager said, “the majority of which hopefully you’ll never see.”
In his comments, Graham noted that of all natural disasters, “wildfires are the only disasters where responders are placed in the forefront.”
In reference to this summer’s wildfire, Graham predicted the smoldering fire will likely produce occasional smoke for months in the foreseeable future.

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